Skip to content
+61 412 181 635
All writing
Decision Making

Why a SMILE can give you greater confidence when practising intuitive decision-making

Steve Jobs was famous for following his gut. Those gut calls contributed to many Apple success stories.

But when he was diagnosed with a rare neuroendocrine tumour cancer, Jobs’ trust in his intuition led him down a risky path.

He chose to prioritise options other than surgery. That decision initially excluded specialist medical care that could have been integrated with the alternative treatments he chose to follow.

Unfortunately, the reliance on his gut may have contributed to what some doctors described as an unnecessarily early death.

Jobs’ biographer Walter Isaacson said, “I think that he kind of felt that if you ignore something, if you don’t want something to exist, you can have magical thinking…we talked about this a lot.” Isaacson reported Jobs’ told him he came to regret the decision to exclude surgery as an option following his diagnosis.

Tapping into intuition has been known to lead to business success and even save lives. However, Job’s story shows that previous intuitive success doesn’t mean your intuition will always be right.

Intuition and instincts are often confused, but they are not the same.

Instincts are innate, automatic responses like fighting, fleeing or freezing when faced with a threat. These responses are hardwired into our biology and don’t require conscious thought. If you’re like me, your instincts are why you unconsciously react when you see a request to ID a snake on your local Facebook community page.

Intuition can feel like a “gut feeling” or hunch that guides our decisions.

In his book, The Intuition Toolkit: The New Science of Knowing What without Knowing Why, Joel Pearson, a cognitive neuroscientist, says that in situations we know well, intuition can guide us.

His research explores the boundaries of intuition and when it might lead us down the wrong path. According to Pearson, intuition draws on our accumulated knowledge and experiences, often operating below our conscious awareness, influencing our decisions in subtle ways.

However, in new or high-stakes situations—like making personal health decisions—our intuition and instincts might not be enough. We might rely on patterns that don’t apply, leading to decisions that feel right but are wrong.

Warren Buffett once said, “It’s better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.” The key is to know when our intuition is “approximately right” and when it’s leading us astray.

Picture your intuition as a trusted shortcut. In familiar territory, it saves time. But in new areas, you may need a full map to avoid getting lost.

So, how do we know when to trust our gut and how to build better intuition? Context is king!

Joel Pearson’s SMILE model is a guide to understanding whether it’s safe to practice intuition in your specific context:

  • Self-Awareness: Be aware of your emotions. Some positive emotion is okay but if your emotions are too high – avoid using your intuition.
  • Mastery: If you’re still learning– avoid using your intuition and be aware mastery is influenced by the process through which you learn rather than how many hours you spend learning. For example, you may only need to experience something very negative once rather than spending 10,000 hours learning why it’s negative.
  • Impulses and addiction: If what you’re experiencing is an impulse or craving – avoid using your intuition. People living with addiction should always avoid trusting their intuition.
  • Low probability: If probabilistic thinking is required – avoid using your intuition. If you ‘know’ this is your week to win Powerball the odds are the price of the Lotto ticket would be better spent paying a bill.
  • Environment: If the situation is unfamiliar, unpredictable or producing random patterns – avoid using your intuition.

If ‘No’ is your answer to each of these questions, it’s most likely safe to use your intuition.

If at any point, you answer ‘Yes’ to a question, hold off using your intuition until the situation changes. For example, wait until you’re in a less heightened emotional state.

Or take a leaf out of Daniel Kahneman’s book and think slow, seek out different evidence-based perspectives and follow steps proven to work, including deciding not to act.

When you practice following Pearson’s simple model, you can build your intuitive muscle and make smarter decisions.

More to read

Susanne standing beside a blurred boardroom meeting, with a hand-drawn play diagram overlaid between her and the table

Where your next CEO learns the job

When I was a manager leading enterprise bargaining for doctors, I got to attend the Cabinet Budget Review Committee and present our case alongside the Director-General. I had to respond to direct questions from the Premier and then influence the Under...

Read it
Susanne Le Boutillier smiling and gesturing while presenting at a whiteboard to a small group of leaders

When the plan changes, tell people why

All through high school, I spent Monday afternoons at speech and drama classes at Mrs Davis’s house. It was more than public speaking. We learned elements of performance, and we did improvisation. You were handed a small slip of paper with an idea or a phrase on it. You had one minute to think about...

Read it
Susanne Le Boutillier and Dr Samantha Rush presenting the Ambiguity Apocalypse game to professional speakers seated at tables with game boards

The uncertainty your team is not showing you

At the Professional Speakers Association of New Zealand convention in Auckland, Dr Samantha Rush and I ran a session for professional speakers from more than five countries. At one table, a player became very upset with the people learning as they went. They hadn’t read all the instructions themselves, so they couldn’t be confident that...

Read it

Find your way through.

If the complexity in your organisation isn't going anywhere, and you have less certainty than you'd like, that's ground Susanne has worked for thirty years.

Start with a conversation to find your team's way through.